Area Forecast Discussion

[category weatherwire]
.AVIATION...
EASTERLY FLOW A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
REMAINING WEST OF THE PBI/FLL/MIA CORRIDOR AND AFFECT INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST. MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE NORTHWEST, BUT
WILL BECOME MORE ERRATIC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTH AND EAST FROM INITIAL STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL BKN/OVC CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014/

..SOME DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE EASTERLY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL FOCUS THE BEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS OVER THE METRO AREAS AND THE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO REMAIN COOL
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -9C TO -11C
RANGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. DRIER AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE PWAT VALUES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO FALL DOWN TO 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS BELOW THE 2 STANDARD DEVIATION OF
1.8 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THE POPS FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED RANGE
WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS BY END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE BACK EAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE TO RETURNING
TO THE AREA. SO THE POPS FOR LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.

MARINE... THE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH THE WIND
DIRECTION BACKING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY TO A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION BY MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET
OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 89 75 / 30 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 88 78 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 89 77 89 77 / 30 20 20 10
NAPLES 91 73 91 73 / 30 20 20 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION... 59/MOLLEDA



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