Area Forecast Discussion

[category weatherwire]
.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE
PENINSULA AND THE LAKE REGION BUT THE AFTERNOON PORTION OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE MOST COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MID-WEEK. THE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY TO HAVE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN REGIONS. BY
TUESDAY SOME DRIER AIR COULD APPROACH THE REGION ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH DIURNAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR
REGIONS ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE COULD BE LESS. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE EURO MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COULD BE IN THE EASTERN GULF AND BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE THAT DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ENTER THE REGION. THE
SOURCE OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SOME WEAK TROPICAL
WAVES CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AS THEY CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD THE MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
WAVES COULD ENTER THE REGION. SO THE LATEST GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE FEATURES WITH AN APPROPRIATE
INCREASE IN THE POP'S FOR MID WEEK INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
WITH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST
OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY. OTHERWISE ATLANTIC SEAS FORECAST TO BE 3
FEET OR LESS AND GULF WATERS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK IF
NOT BEYOND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 88 74 88 / 20 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 89 75 88 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 76 89 76 88 / 20 30 20 20
NAPLES 74 91 74 89 / 20 40 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD



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