Suppression Forecast

[category weatherwire]
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0708 EDT ON JUNE 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
...RE-TRANSMISSION OF PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED AT 656 AM...

MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF TAMIAMI
TRAIL. INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST,
BUT BECOME ERRATIC AND POSSIBLY BUILD BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT WILDFIRE LOCATION WILL BE
AFTER 4 PM AS STORMS BUILD SOUTH.

SEA BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE WEAK THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LIKELY REACH WILDFIRE SITE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM. WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AND ERRATIC AFTER 4 PM AS OUTFLOW FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS COULD SHIFT TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING AS STORMS APPROACH. GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 49 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT
AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....17...INCREASING TO 51.
LVORI...............2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM
SKY (%).........30 30 40 50 50 50
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
TEMP............74 87 93 93 90 88
RH..............93 59 49 49 54 57
20 FT WIND......E 4 E 4 E 4 SW 5 SW 5 N 4
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 10
MIX HGT (FT)....2000 2000 3500 5000 5000 4500
MIXNG WIND......E 7 E 7 E 9 E 9 E 9 E 9
DISPERSION IDX..17 17 39 53 53 49
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 40 40 20
LAL.............1 1 2 3 3 3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 71.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 0 TO 3 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....1.
LVORI...............6.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 47 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING WEST AROUND 6 MPH EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT
AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 0 MPH...INCREASING TO 0 TO 8 MPH
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....2...INCREASING TO 21 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
INCREASING TO 49 EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 37 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...MOLLEDA
REQUESTED BY...MATT HEINZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140615.SKILL.01/MFL



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